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Summary
Primary election night coverage
Transcript
ALI VELSHI, MSNBC HOST: Good evening and welcome to MSNBC PRIME. I`m Ali Velshi, and thanks for joining us on this big night in American politics.
Five states are holding primary elections today. The results from each of them will be telling in an entirely different ways. The polls have just closed in Michigan, and Kansas. We`re, of course, going to have Steve Kornacki here in just a moment, take us through the latest numbers as votes are counted.
Now all eyes are on Kansas today, where abortion rights are on the ballot for the first time since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
[21:00:08]
Kansas are voting on whether to allow the Republican legislature to wish tricked or ban abortion in the state. Now we are going to have much more on that vote including some last-minute dirty tricks and some impressively high turnout numbers.
Polls close just over an hour ago in Missouri where the marquee race is the Republican primary for the Senate. NBC says it`s still too early to call, which is 4 percent of the polls reporting. Two of the top contenders for the nomination of Missouri scandal-plagued former Governor Eric Greitens guns and the current state Attorney General Eric Schmitt. Two guys named Eric.
And last night on the eve of the primary, Donald Trump announced that he was endorsing Eric. Not a joke. Trump endorsed Eric and didn`t say which Eric. Could have been Eric Greitens, could have been Eric Schmitt. Could have been a little known Eric McElroy, a third Eric who happens to be in the same race.
In any case, Greitens and Schmitt immediately claimed that Trump were endorsing them. Can`t make the stuff up. Meanwhile, polls are still open in the state of Washington where to Republican members of Congress are facing primary challenges over their votes to impeach Donald Trump.
Jamie Herrera Beutler and Dan Newhouse are two of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump after the January 6th attack on the Capitol. Republican voters in their district are deciding today whether to toss them out for it.
Congressman Herrera Beutler`s primary is also worth keeping an eye on because her Trump backed challenger has well-documented ties to white when extremists and white nationalist. He told an interviewer, quote, I don`t think that is anything wrong with there being a white people special interest group, end quote.
And another Republican congressman who voted to impeach Trump is facing a primary challenger, backed by the former president today, in the state of Michigan where polls have also just closed.
NBC News` Shaq Brewster caught up with Congressman Peter Meijer after he cast his own ballot this morning.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. PETER MEIJER (R-MI): I mean, I definitely had some folks who said, listen, I didn`t like that vote. But in the end, they also say I don`t want the see to go to a Democrat.
SHAQ BREWSTER, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: If you are not a successful, how does that say about the future of your party?
MEIJER: I think that will be a bridge we cross to when we come to that. I don`t want get ahead of the poll results, and right now, we are feeling very confident with the support that we`ve been seeing.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: Also in Michigan today, the Republican primary to determine who will take on Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer in November. This was a race that at that we had hiccup a couple of months ago when several of the Republican candidates were disqualified. It turned that the petitions that they submitted to get on the ballots were filled with fraudulent signatures.
One of the remaining candidates, Donald Trump made it an endorsement of them a few days ago getting behind the front runner, Tudor Dixon. But it must have been a hard choice because one of the other candidates, Ryan Kelley, was indicted in June for his involvement in the January 6th riots. Must have thought he had a lock on the Trump endorsement after that.
But if there`s one place that might really give us a sense of the state of the Republican Party tonight, and maybe even the state of American democracy, it`s Arizona. Polls close and hours on and less than an hour and the Republican primaries there have really been something to see. I mean, Arizona has kind of been the poster child for the GOP`s retreat from democracy for a while now. Arizona, you will recall, was one of seven states that Joe Biden won in 2020 in which the Trump campaign worked with local Republican officials to create fake electoral certificates, claiming that in fact Trump had won.
Just tonight, “The New York Times” has obtained emails showing that the chair of the Arizona Republican Party raise concerns at the time that the whole scheme might seem well quote, treasonous. But then she went ahead and did it anyway.
Arizona Republicans then led the charge for calling the 2020 election fraudulent, setting up a months-long circus that they called an election audit where they shined UV lights at ballots and look for bamboo fibers to prove that fake ballots were shipped in from China, or something like that. At one point, the Republican state Senate try to have the election leaders of largest county arrested for not sufficiently cooperating with they`re supposed election investigation. And in the context like that, you are going to get some, let`s call them, unusual Republican candidates in these midterm primaries.
Like the Trump-endorsed candidate for governor, who has made the 2020 election the number one issue of her campaign as governor of Arizona. She says the election was stolen and Joe Biden is not actually the president of the United States, and if she becomes governor, she is going to eliminate mail-in voting as well as all voting machines.
[21:05:03]
Plus, she has been saying for weeks up to and including today to our own Vaughn Hillyard, on the left of the screen there, that`s her primary election is already being stolen from her, ahead of time. She wrote off any evidence or say how she knows this of course.
Then there is the Republican primary for Senate in Arizona. In that race, Trump`s preferred candidate is a guy who is almost entirely funded by the billionaire, Peter Thiel, a man who says that does not believe in democracy and America really started going downhill when women were given the right to vote. Goes without saying that that set of candidates, Blake Masters believes the 2020 election was fill in the blank, stolen.
He also says the January 6th attack on the Capitol was a false flag operation which was actually carried out by the FBI. When it comes to gun violence, in America, Blake Masters says he blames quote, Black people, frankly.
Then there is the Republican primary for Arizona secretary of state. That is the official who runs the states elections. The Trump-backed candidate there is an election denier who says he will only accept the results of the primary if he wins. He was at down to a six himself by the way. He says he is a member of the right-wing militia, the Oath Keepers, members of which are on trial right now for seditious conspiracy, because of their role in January 6.
Remember, seditious conspiracy is the most serious thing you can be charged with, it`s a tradition, we have to be working for the other side in a war for it to be treason. Seditious conspiracy, guy says he`s a member.
Again, the polls close in Arizona and less than an hour. We`re going to start to see how these primaries are playing out. We got plenty to talk about from the states where we are already getting results.
So what does one do on a night like this? It`s obvious. We go to the big board for MSNBC national political correspondent, Steve Kornacki.
Steve, my friend, good evening to you.
We are getting results and from Kansas, which was influential on two levels. One, because of the elections that are going on, but, two, because they have got a referendum in a primary, about abortion. It`s the first time in America people are going to the polls after Roe v. Wade has collapsed.
STEVE KORNACKI, MSNBC NATIONAL POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: That`s right. This is the first one of these that we have seen in the statewide level. We will see some more this November. I think we will see many more in the years to come.
But here it is in Kansas. The proposal is a constitutional amendments that would say that the Constitution of the state of Kansas does not allow for, does not provide for, a right to an abortion. That with then if this passes, that would open the door to the legislature enacting a ban, if it wanted to, a severe restriction if it wanted to. It would open the door to that.
So what you are seeing here with 11 percent or so, more than 10 percent of the voting early. No is off to a good start here in terms of where it is positioned early. I`m seeing the number, it has come down and I`m just going to figure out on the fly here with the vote just came in from that would`ve done that.
But I want to explain the basic trend here that we are looking at. In fact I think I see it here. Yeah, this is almost certainly, I just to seek to my producer, can get me in my ear here. This is where Lawrence, Kansas, is.
This — I believe the numbers have been transposed here. Lawrence, Kansas, as one of the most, one of the more —
VELSHI: That should be where —
KORNACKI: University of Kansas.
Sometimes what will happen is that when we get the numbers, and the 87 a 12 will get flipped. I believe, I suspect strongly that`s what happened here. Let me table that for a moment and just see if we can get that resolved.
Because otherwise, if you get outside of Lawrence, Kansas, the story that is emerging in all of these counties right now is that they are counting up first and reporting out first their vote by mail, and they`re early voting numbers. And as we have seen in election after election, those numbers are the most friendly for Democrats because Democrats just tend to vote by mail, Republicans don`t.
It`s the same day vote, the in person election day vote that tends to be much more Republican. In that in Kansas, what`s going to happen here, these counties are generally going to report out first the mail vote and the early vote. We are seeing is that probably going to give no its best numbers of the night.
And then throughout the night, the counties are going to begin to report out the same day votes. And that is going to be much more favorable to yes. So I think we are going to see at the county level, is that with these and show reports, no matter what you are looking at, you are going to say no to ask it as it`s going to do, and then throughout the rest of the night, you are going to see the numbers come down. You`re going to see that happen at the county level, and then you`re going to see that happen at the state level.
So I`m just taking a look at some of these counties right now know is putting up some enormous numbers in some of these big counties, Democratic counties. A good example here, Shawnee County, this is where the capital is, this is where Topeka is. You are looking at the mail vote, early votes, and no is at 70 percent.
To put that into some perspective, Joe Biden carried this county but only by three points in 2020.
[21:10:05]
A good benchmark here for the no side is, they generally want to be running about ten points better than Biden did. Because Biden got 41 percent in Kansas in 2020, so generally speaking, if no is running ten points better than that, it could position no for a victory here. So the county like Shawnee, if the number lance, if the no number lands at the end of the night, at about 60 percent or so, that is probably a good showing for now. But 60 or above is a good showing.
So the question now is, we`ve got the mail vote, we`ve got the early vote, we are going to get the same day votes in Shawnee County. How far is that no come down? This is just come down to the mid 60s? Low 60s? That will be good for no.
Does it come down under 60? So the high 50s? To the mid 50s? That will be good for yes. So that`s the story that we are going to see in Shawnee County, that`s a story we are going to see just about all of these counties as they light up throughout the night.
We have by the way so far no numbers from this one, this is the mother of all counties in Kansas. Johnson County, right outside Kansas City, a fifth of a vote, a quarter of the vote, statewide, is going to come out of here. I can I expect the pattern I am describing here is very much going to play out here as well. So in fact, there I believe.
OK, that is issue is resolved.
VELSHI: Yes.
KORNACKI: They were transposed. That makes much more sense. This is the home of the University of Kansas.
And, again, what you`re looking at here, this will be the high water mark for the night. You will expect no to carry Douglas County, Kansas. But this is the mail in vote, the early vote, there will be some same-day votes. There probably is more favorable to, as this number will come down here I expect.
But, again, that`s the pattern we`re going to see throughout the night here in Kansas as we get down to about 20 percent of the vote counted. No is going to be doing very well here in these early hours. The question is can no stay above 50 when all is said and done.
Just quickly —
VELSHI: I just want to remind, you have been saying it, but we`re going to throw my people all night, it`s a little bit counterintuitive. No is to not make it unconstitutional to have abortion health care rights.
KORNACKI: Right. Yes, this all started because the Supreme Court in Kansas ruled that the state constitution provides for a right to abortion. So with the referendum here is, it`s a proposal for a constitutional amendment that would say, actually, the constitution does not provide for a right to legal abortion, in Kansas. So yes, would amend the constitution in the state of Kansas.
VELSHI: To restrict abortion.
KORNACKI: Right, to say there is no right for abortion. No would not do that.
VELSHI: Steve, you are moving them up there, you are showing us something else.
KORNACKI: Yes, let`s move over to Missouri. I just want to check in on the Senate of Republican Senate primary. We are saying to get more numbers in there.
Next door here, Eric Schmitt, the attorney general here, who was partially, if you want to, say endorsed by Donald Trump at the last-minute. The polls have shown Schmitt surging late. There have been a concerted by a lot of Republicans saying Eric Greitens, the former governor who had resigned in scandal, would potentially endanger the state for Republicans, Schmitt certainly putting up encouraging numbers up for his campaign early.
And we do have some numbers in Michigan. I do want to show you this race because this is the right here, this is Peter Meijer, one of the ten house Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump last year. This is a small amount of voting but this is his challenger, John Gibbs backed by Donald Trump. We have both from one of the three counties that come in partial votes from Ottawa County.
Now you can see Meijer down by about 2 to 1. There`s not a ton of votes, but so far, the only other House Republican who voted to impeach Trump, who`s running a primary, that Trump`s gotten involved in, lost big. So this is a test here.
VELSHI: But Meijer has not backed down once. This is a guy who has held to his position, he has not bent to political will or whim. Whether he wins or loses tonight, Peter Meijer will form a piece of history in the next book you`re right, or anybody who writes about what it was like to be a Republican in the 2020 election and beyond.
KORNACKI: And there are three of us tonight. There are three Republicans who voted to impeach Trump, in primaries tonight. None of them have walked away from that out. And after tonight, there is one more to come. It`ll be two weeks from tonight in Wyoming. And that will be Liz Cheney.
VELSHI: State, we will stay very close to each other this evening. Thank you, my friend.
Steve Kornacki is MSNBC`s national political correspondent. We will be checking back with him.
Joining us now is Yvonne Wingett Sanchez. She spent more than two decades as a reporter for “The Arizona Republic”. She is now “The Washington Post” very for supporters specifically spot focus on democracy it wasn`t going to interesting because I feel like, Yvonne, this is the road we are all going into. We`re going to have lots of people coming out of — schools with the specialty that you practiced.
But it`s important because you have been studying Arizona for so long. And Arizona is to some degree ground zero on this experiment to dismantle democracy in America.
[21:15:05]
YVONNE WINGETT SANCHEZ, THE WASHINGTON POST: Well, we have a false slate of election deniers who are pretty much singularly running in this notion of the 2020 election was stolen. In some instances, they launched their campaigns on the notion that it was stolen, with other candidates. They were sort of playing footsie with the former president in an effort to get an endorsement which many Republicans deem key to being able to make it through especially a crowded primary. We are seeing competitive and very crowded primaries and a lot of these tight races in the U.S. Senate race to the gubernatorial race and the secretary of state`s race.
This is a race that is very important over the next coming years ahead of 2024 and has enormous implications for whatever laws or changes to voting procedures that we may see in the future.
VELSHI: I want to ask you because this is your beat. What is the distinction, a line — Arizona`s got a lot of conservative history, it`s got a lot of honest Republicans there, but what is happening with some of these candidates who might win tonight is not about being conservative, it`s not about being Republican. It`s not even about an election being stolen.
It`s about perpetuating a myth that has been disproved over and over again. Where does that fit in with the democracy watch?
SANCHEZ: Well, for a lot of Republicans and I spent last night at a pro- Trump rally in downtown Phoenix, I talked to about a dozen Republicans who were there and many of them are true believers. They really do believe that something suspicious, something funky happened in 2020 and it cost them big.
And there are a lot of people who are newly engaged and are coming out because of this issue, there are others who volunteered or worked at the Arizona ballot review last year which by the way affirmed ballot Biden`s win. But they believe in a lot of these conspiracies that have been spread through misinformation, through social media, during conversations with their friends and family members, and they just truly believe it.
There is certainly another portion of the electorate that is clearly working to exploit this issue and is trying to leverage it to raise money, to get votes and to just make it through tonight to get to November.
VELSHI: I want to play some tape of MSNBC`s or NBC News`s Vaughn Hillyard speaking to the Trump-backed Republican candidate. You mentioned the gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake. I want to get a reaction to it. Let`s play this and then we can talk about it.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
VAUGH HILLYARD, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: You`re already contending that there`s irregularities and fraud in this election. At what point does Kari Lake stop and say, am I undermining Americans` faith in our elections”.
KARI LAKE (R), ARIZONA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: Kari Lake is going to help bring honest elections back to America.
HILLYARD: But you haven`t even laid out any fraud or irregularities?
LAKE: And unfortunately people like Vaughn are about destroying America.
HILLYARD: But what fraud is there, Kari?
LAKE: Vaughn —
HILLYARD: But what fraud is there? This is serious.
LAKE: Do you want to make this about you?
HILLYARD: This is about Arizona voters and their faith in this election.
LAKE: The last person on the planet earth that I would tell about what we discovered is you or MSNBC.
HILLYARD: So you know about a crime? And yet you are not reporting it to authorities?
LAKE: And I`m not telling you about it.
(END VIDEO LCIP)
VELSHI: That`s some weird stuff that just went on there. She entirely made it about Vaughn Hillyard and misrepresenting democracy. Kari Lake is journalist or was a journalist before she was running for this.
What happens here? Who are the people that think this is sort of mainstream Republican/conservative thought and that she is going to get votes from it?
SANCHEZ: There are a lot of people who think they can get votes from that. She could very well beyond the right path to winning the nomination, in part because of rhetoric like this.
Look, she has again singularly campaigned almost exclusively on the notion that Arizona`s elections need to be completely upended. She`s talking about eliminating mail-in voting. She`s talking about having voter ID on the back of mail-in ballots. A lot of people in the Republican base who are hearing from here what they have wanted to hear from the so-called Republican establishment, like Arizona Governor Doug Ducey like others for a long time.
She`s tapped into a base in an extraordinary way, bringing a lot of her experience as a news anchor to connect with these people who feel like they are left behind or that something was taken from them.
[21:20:07]
VELSHI: It`s going to be an interesting night. Yvonne, thank you so much for joining us. Yvonne Wingett Sanchez covers democracy in Arizona and America for “The Washington Post”. Thank you joining us this evening.
We are keeping a close eye on the votes coming in from Kansas tonight where the no vote on the question of whether to outlaw abortion is currently running ahead of the yes votes. Still early though. A lot of those no votes or mail-in and absentee.
We`re going to talk live with one of the activists leading the fight. And we`ll check in with Steve Kornacki again.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)(
[21:25:13]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MERRICK GARLAND, ATTORNEY GENERAL: The Justice Department is going to use every tool we can to ensure reproductive freedom. We are going to enforce federal law here.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: All right. Two weeks ago, the Attorney General Merrick Garland promised to use the full weight of the government to use every tool they have to uphold federal law there requires hospitals that receive Medicare funding to provide medically necessary treatment to emergency room patients. Sounds pretty simple, but that includes some abortions. Some people have to get an abortion at an emergency room because of some matter that`s other related to the pregnancy or otherwise.
Garland threatened to sue states that violated that federal law and today he did it. The Justice Department sued Idaho over the states restrictive trigger law which is set to go in effect August 25th. The DOJ claims that the law violates the federal Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act. Garland`s Justice Department is seeking an injunction against a state of Idaho to block it in forcing its abortion ban.
Now this is a very big deal. It`s the first a lawsuit that the Justice Department has brought against a state over abortion restrictions since the Supreme Court overturned Roe. And according to Garland and his associate attorney general, Vanita Gupta, this is unlikely to be the last time they do it.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GARLAND: We will use every tool at our disposal to ensure that pregnant women get the emergency medical treatment to which they are entitled under federal law. And we will closely scrutinize state abortion laws to ensure that they comply with federal law.
VANITA GUPTA, ASSOCIATE ATTORNEY GENERAL: We know that these are frightening and uncertain times for pregnant women in their providers and the Justice Department through the work of his task force is committed to doing everything we can to ensure continued lawful access to reproductive services.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: Now both the attorney general and the associate attorney general echoed appointed Garland made on Friday during a White House meeting with bar associations, public interest groups and law professionals.
He said, quote: It will take all of us, government lawyers, private pro bono attorneys, bar associations, public interest organizations to– do all we can to protect access to reproductive health care and provide vigorous legal representation of patients, providers and third parties in need, end quote.
So, today, it is Kansas voters` turn to protect reproductive health care in their state. Voters there cast their ballots in the first referendum on abortion anywhere in the country since Roe was overturned. Now as it stands now, Kansas courts say that the right to an abortion is protected in the state constitution, but if a majority of voters vote yes to an amendment that would explicitly remove that right, the Republican state legislature could pass future laws restricting abortion.
So there is a lot riding on this vote tonight. It`s not a primary. This happened during states primaries rather than during the general election in November when more voters were typically turnout, but this is actually a referendum.
Several voters have complained that the language in the ballot measure is confusing, and just last night voters received several misleading text with language that added to the confusion. Things like quote, women in Kansas are losing their choice on reproductive rights. Voting yes on the amendment will give women a choice. Vote yes to protect women`s health, end quote.
This is what when I was growing up in Canada we would call a lie, because voting yes today actually means removing the right to choice over abortion over the state`s constitution. Yes is no abortions, no is protecting abortion rights.
Despite all the confusion and the fact that this is just a primary election day, Kansas saw a surge in early voting compared to 2018, indicating very strong interest in this referendum vote. We are seeing even more early reports of strong turnout today.
We know that recent polls show the s phones, meaning the votes to ban abortion in the state have a slight edge, but considering the turnout today, it`s anyone`s guess where this lands. Polls closed in that state right as we came on air tonight.
Joining us now is Sapphire Garcia-Lies, abortion rights supporter working on the no campaign in Kansas.
Sapphire, good to see you. Thank you for joining us again tonight.
[21:30:00]
SAPPHIER GARCIA-LIES, WICHITA BIRTH JUSTICE SOCIETY FOUNDER: Thank you, Ali.
VELSHI: It`s early yet. We are seeing early returns which tend to be mail in returns, and some coming from the cities, where we sort of expect there was also be what they are. About 20 percent 2 percent of the numbers are in in the state where we are seeing a no lead at the moment, which is fairly significant. But analysts are expecting that to flatten out as the night goes on.
What are you expecting to happen?
GARCIA-LIES: I think that we have done this. I think that Kansas has turned this around. I am seeing lines around the corner at all of the polls today. And I am hearing from Republicans and Democrats alike, that this was not going to be good for Kansas. And I think that we have done it. I am optimistic that we have stops at in its tracks.
VELSHI: We know that there are several tactics that could result in stifling the vote no initiative tonight. The language on the ballot measure is confusing. That text that I just described, I saw that in somebody said that to me to say, well, that makes it looks like if you want women to have reproductive rights, but yes, which would actually have the opposite effect.
Tell me what`s happening with that, whether there is anything to be done about it?
GARCIA-LIES: You know, I think that people are so galvanized in their beliefs and their position on this, that one text message was not going to persuade their opinion. I`ve also heard, Ali, that`s at some of the polling places in Wichita, they were poll worker impersonators passing out handouts that we`re giving people the idea that if they had felony, it shouldn`t boats.
We know that that is not the case in Kansas. If there are no longer under supervision for that felony, they are allowed to exercise their right. People are pushing back. I think that`s what we are seeing widespread here in Kansas. People are tired of the status quo. They are tired of freedoms being snatched away and they are pushing back and showing today that Kansas is more radical than people think.
KORNACKI: Several states surrounding Kansas have recently imposed abortion bans. Kansas Department of Health says abortions have increased in Kansas by more than 13 percent in the past two years. Now are you worried about what happens next for pregnant people all over this region? If they are success in this amendment, for the yes side?
GARCIA-LIES: Yes, I am extremely worried Kansas is an island of access right now. And if we lose access in Kansas, of course, all surrounding states lose access. Not everybody has the financial means to jump on a plane and go to Chicago, or Denver.
So we are going to see this impact Black and Brown mothers more than anybody else. And as somebody who specifically serves the Black and Brown mothers all through the state, it concerns me. I am tired of seeing my sisters die. It has to come to a stop. I think Kansas by a large degree with that.
VELSHI: We are going to see this all play out tonight. Sapphire, thanks for joining us again tonight. Sapphire Garcia-Lies is an abortion right supporting worker on the vote no campaign in Kansas, we appreciate seeing you again.
We got new numbers by the way coming in by the minute in Kansas, and in Michigan. Polls are close at the top of the hour. We`re going to get to the latest results in those two states with Steve Kornacki, but just let me show you what is happening in Kansas right now, this in the course of the conversation that I`ve had, another percentage point has come into that state and then no vote has increased. So we`ve got 63 percent on the no side. This is no to restricting abortion in the state, 37 percent on yet to imposing abortion restrictions in Kansas. We will have more with Steve on the other side.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[21:38:15]
VELSHI: As I mentioned before the break, we are getting a lot of numbers in from Kansas. But you can just take these run on numbers and make something of them.
We got Steve Kornacki for that.
Steve, literally as we, talk we get more and more numbers in, you are going to make sense of it and determine trends. I spoke to somebody who is part of the no campaign who said that they think they`ve got a lock on this tonight. What are you making of it?
KORNACKI: Yeah. I mean, look, no is putting up monster numbers early in this thing. Exactly the kind of numbers that they want to be putting up. The one catch on this as a way of saying is that we are generally looking at so far here, on this map, is that mail votes, the vote by mail, and the early vote. What you are generally waiting on who saved a vote. The early, vote their vote by mail, in particular, is a heavy Democratic type of vote.
So, the rule of thumb in kind of these counties that are not at 100 percent completed is you are looking at the high water mark for no. Then the same- day vote is going to come in and be counted, and that is going to boost yes, the question is going to, bay does not start to take down and fall near or under 50 percent?
VELSHI: And no are the folks who want to preserve abortion rights in Kansas. The courts have said that abortion is protected in the state constitution. Yes are the people that want to change that, so that abortion rights are not protected —
KORNACKI: Correct.
VELSHI: — in the Constitution.
Now, you`ve been making some interesting comparisons all evening, where you say you want to compare the no and the yes. So let`s call this similar to Democratic votes, and similar to Republican votes during an election. And you`re trying to compare that to what happened in the last election?
KORNACKI: Yeah, exactly, so one way of interpreting this is, as I was saying, we`ve got that early mail vote in a lot of these counties, which we`re missing a lot of them is the same day. Here is one, it`s a very small counties, but I think this is interesting. This is Phillips County.
[21:40:01]
The population here is about 4,500, OK? We`ve got we think all of the votes or just about all of the votes in Phillips County. So here is a place we got a mail early.
VELSHI: And you are view of this is that while the no group didn`t do very well in this rural —
KORNACKI: You will look at this and say, yeah, 2 to 1 victory. Now, let`s put that in perspective, in this county, in the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump won 87 to 11 percent. And remember, statewide, Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election got 41 percent of the votes in Kansas.
So, one rule of thumb, where you can get all of the votes counted, up in any given county, of the state, if Biden is running about, excuse, me it`s a no side is running about ten points better than Biden, that is going to bode very well for the no size. Well, you see it, Biden got 11 percent in this rubble heavily Republican county in 2020. And no tonight has tripled that, get 33 percent.
So I think the benchmark for no in a county like this would probably bit about 20 percent, looks like they are going to get 33 percent here. So this is the second piece of the equation. If you start seeing this as other counties get all their votes counted in. If you start seeing anything even remotely resembling this, then your guest to say no it was on their way to victory is absolutely right, because that is what has to happen for no to prevail tonight. And again this is one very small county.
VELSHI: And you are using it as an example because we got a lot of vote in.
KORNACKI: Exactly, because we got that mix that we are talking about where you got the mail, we`ve got the early, we`ve got the same day, now you got something that you can compare to pass election results. Again using that 2020 results that Biden Trumps about kind of as a benchmark, no has to build off that Biden number. Here they absolutely, much more built off it in Phillips County there.
So again we will see here as we get completed results, in other counties, as another thing I wanted to point out is right here, Johnson County. This is the granddaddy of them all. About 20 to 25 percent of all the votes in the state of Kansas are going to come out of this county. This is the suburb of Kansas City, exactly. We haven`t done anything yet.
But again, Biden carried his county. Keep in mind, Biden carried this county with 50 percent of the vote in 2020. This has moved dramatically in the Democrats direction over the last decade or two. And again, if the no side which finished 65 percent or something here, that could be ball game. We don`t have any of the numbers from Johnson.
VELSHI: Something just popped up, something just popped up in Johnson.
KORNACKI: Okay!
VELSHI: So this is interesting. It went to nothing to 95 percent.
KORNACKI: And when I suspect, yeah, would I suspect here, and I discussed my producer can confirm this. Adam, is this, do we suspect that we`ve got the male and the early and we are still waiting on same day?
Right, so what`s happened, one of the things happen here, Ali, turnout is so high in Kansas today, so unexpectedly high, I can tell you, we are now estimating that the turnout in the primary is gone about the 800,000. It`s typical turnout in the primary in Kansas is about 450,000. So it`s that much higher.
So what`s happened here is we are what is happening Johnson was we had an estimate at the side of the day of what we thought the total vote would be. It just hit that level, there`s going to be. More this is a good example. This is a very good example.
VELSHI: But we are still outpacing at the moment where Biden got in 2020.
KORNACKI: This is what I`ve been describing in these other counties. What you got here is the early votes, and the mail vote. This is not as good as it`s going to get for no in Johnson County. But, Johnson County, again if you looked up at the screen, was only 53 percent Biden. So if you use that role —
VELSHI: Right, 62, 63 percent, that would be doing very well.
KORNACKI: Sixty-two, sixty-three, somewhere in that neighborhood. So, it`s got to come down a lot for now to.
VELSHI: Do we have time to talk about Michigan real fast? Something doesn`t cause a Michigan. Let`s take a look at Michigan.
KORNACKI: Let`s go to the national map here, I think you`re talking about the race for governor.
VELSHI: And I`m watching that Michigan three as well the Peter Meijer race.
KORNACKI: Yeah, you can see here, this race by the way, this is the Republican primary for governor.
VELSHI: Gretchen Whitmer is going to be —
KORNACKI: The Democratic nominee.
And this race will see if this develops into competitive general election campaign.
The Republican, the initial Republican front runner was disqualified several Republican candidates in fact were disqualified from the ballot because of signature issues. So this primary turned into an absolute mess. This ends up being a Trump endorsed candidate who wins, also by the way, Betsy DeVos-endorsed candidate, who wins this primary, we`ll see if she`s able to make this competitive general election. Not a surprise that it ends this way tonight. This was the poll was suggesting.
But yes, the other suspenseful but big piece of suspense in Michigan is right here, third congressional district, western Michigan.
[21:45:05]
And now, look at this. We`ve got close to a third of the vote in here where you`re looking at John Gibbs who is challenging Peter Meijer, Peter Meijer one of the ten Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump. When we look at this last, Gibbs lead was getting close to 20 points. It`s now down as you can see to about four and a half points.
And what is happening here, this is interesting, let`s just zoom in here. Ottawa County, you can see that this is a smaller part of the district, gives running up a score there. This is the bigger part of the district, Kent County. This is where Grand Rapids is, this is Peter Meijer`s base. If not a lot of the vote gets in for county, it`s going to be a lot more votes to come in here.
So a big question mark here is it going to stay this Meyer-friendly? But if the vote does stay this Meyer-friendly in Kent County, he can rack up a lot. The other piece of it is the Muskegon County, big of must-see can county`s of district here. That`s also new turf for Meijer.
So I think what Meijer has got it too is just run up the score and can`t, you can see a bit more coming in here. He`s got to run up the score and can`t, because he`s got offset where a problem`s going to be lost those other two counties. But it`s interesting — that wasn`t supposed to happen. I want to reset on it, look at that, really now. It`s narrowing.
(CROSSTALK)
KORNACKI: Meijer is in the game.
VELSHI: You have been saying that all, day he`s been feeling and sounding pretty confident that the reason people need to be interested in the story is that whatever happens to Peter Meijer, win or lose, this is a big American story now. This is a guy, a Republican who said, I`m going to vote to impeach Donald Trump, and now we watch to see what happens to his future.
KORNACKI: He would be the first, again, a lot of the Republicans who voted to impeach. Trump decided not to run this year. One did get through a primary, that was David Valadao in California. But Trump didn`t get involved in that primary. Didn`t endorse anybody, Valadao just got through.
Meijer would be the first, we got two hours in Washington state. But Meijer if he could win this, would be the first to have Trump come in, endorse and opponent, and survive. But still, that is a huge if. He is getting some encouraging numbers from his base in Kent County. Kent County is the biggest part of this district. But he is still losing in Ottawa, still I think maybe in some trouble in Muskegon County. This is an interesting race to keep an eye on.
VELSHI: We`re going to spend a lot time next to each other this evening, my friend. Thank you.
Steve Kornacki is staying with us. We`re going to keep a very close eye on Kansas and other results as they come, we have much more ahead on this election night. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[21:52:09]
VELSHI: All right. We are keeping a very close eye on election results tonight, particularly on Kansas, where early results show a referendum to get rid of a state constitutional protection on abortion is said to fail. We want to take a look now again. We have 41 percent of the numbers and. It`s running 2 to 1 for the group who want to protect abortion rights in Kansas. That is the no campaign. We are going to be ranking a lot of references to knowing yes.
The clock is ticking on another big story for the Senate to pass a slim down but still a massive version of President Biden`s agenda that was dealing with health care, climate, and taxes. You will remember that deal broke down in the past, it was brokered this new one, by Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer and West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin.
Manchin support means that the party is now closer than ever that passing an economic package, which is focus on climate and health care, which would be major victories for Democrats. But the Senate goes into recess next week. And we do not know if Manchin`s colleague, Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema is on board with this.
This afternoon, the two conservative Democrats were seen together on the Senate floor. And my colleague Stephanie Ruhle spoke to Senator Joe Manchin late this afternoon about the deal, and whether he was able to convince Sinema and Republican senators to support it.
Manchin began by telling her that all of the Republican senators across the aisle are his friends, which then led to this exchange.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
STEPHANIE RUHLE, MSNBC HOST: It is a matter who is your friend. You need to get the votes, besides Kyrsten Sinema. Mitch McConnell —
(CROSSTALK)
SEN. JOE MANCHIN (D-WV): I cannot get their vote because they won`t change opinions of tax codes. If they believe that 15 percent should not be the minimum, and corporations shouldn`t pay anything and America, that the largest have a billion dollars of revenue a year, and won`t pay anything, I can`t convince them to change that.
But I know that, all right? I don`t agree. I respect their decision. I don`t agree with the decision. I think it is wrong. But I am not going to chastise them over that.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: All right. Joining us now is my old friend and partner Stephanie Ruhle, host of “The 11th Hour” who interviewed Senator Joe Manchin today.
First of all, hi, buddy, good to see.
RUHLE: I like to point out, I always tell you my dear friend. You always tell me I`m your old friend.
VELSHI: OK, we`re going to change it tonight, my dear friend.
RUHLE: I want to make that public.
VELSHI: Joe Manchin, just to pin on this stuff, but you are trying. He`s got friends, he has spent all over the Senate. But you are asking him, does that friendship converts into votes?
RUHLE: Well, listen, he is talking to his friend Kyrsten Sinema, he did speak to her today. And he did send something interesting. We are sending papers back and forth. What it sounded like she was really wants to know more about is the permanent access he is asking for in West Virginia, which is really some pork for his state, some stuff that just west Virginians what because he wants to go home and give them that.
[21:55:04]
So maybe he is hinting that she is going to be asking for something special for the state of Arizona. We very clearly didn`t say that he was she was a no. But he didn`t say she was a yes and he sure is out there running victory lap.
VELSHI: It`s a big deal if he gets it.
RUHLE: Sure would.
VELSHI: All right. Let`s talk about something that you and I talked about a lot, we asked conservative after conservative after Republican about the carrying just global. And getting rid of it lost we will assure that they would get rid of it. Trump tax bill is done and that they didn`t get rid of it.
Now, there`s an opportunity to do something with it. Carried interest is what people, what very rich people, how they make their money.
RUHLE: OK. So basically, everybody likes a twin out of this, because it`s so important. I`m begging people to pay attention because it`s basically how the private equity industry gets paid on performance fees, basically, they pay a whole lot less of taxes than anyone else.
VELSHI: Than people who earns a salary for working.
RUHLE: Correct, and the reason why this is so ugly just an offensive, we talk about private equity executive, we`re not even talking about Fortune 500 CEOs and the millions of dollars they get paid. We`re talking about people that get paid hundreds of millions of dollars, who are quietly huge donors to lawmakers. Nobody likes carried interest except them.
Miraculously, it always states and the tax code. You and I have asked endlessly, Republican lawmakers, when are you going to finally close this loophole? But now, if Kyrsten Sinema doesn`t go for it, Democrats are going to be the one with egg on their face, they are going to be the ones that didn`t close. It`s a bad look.
VELSHI: Yes, someone needs to take this opportunity to get rid of that once and for all. They`re never letting me do the show again because you and I come on it and we start picking out over the stuff.
RUHLE: Everyone is invited to come on your or my show any day to define why this thing should stay in place.
VELSHI: One hundred percent.
RUHLE: And they never do.
VELSHI: The doors open.
Thanks, buddy, my dear friend, Stephanie Ruhle.
RUHLE: Not old.
VELSHI: Host of “THE 11TH HOUR”, you can have a full interview with Joe Manchin tonight. More election results ahead. We`re going to come right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
VELSHI: That does it for us tonight. I`m going to see you again at midnight, along with Steve Kornacki who`s not going home tonight for a special live hour of the latest election results.
Time now for “THE LAST WORD”. Zerlina Maxwell in for Lawrence tonight.
Good evening, my friend.