When a lengthy government shutdown came to end in the fall, members created a new deadline of Jan. 30 to keep federal operations going through the end of the fiscal year. By and large, with little appetite among either party for another shutdown, the appropriations process ran relatively smoothly.

Then federal immigration agents shot and killed Alex Pretti, and everything changed quickly, as Democrats demanded sweeping reforms to the Department of Homeland Security.

This led to a brief, partial government shutdown, which began on Jan. 30, but which was resolved a few days later with a compromise package: The parties agreed to fund the entirety of the federal government, except DHS, for the rest of the fiscal year. As part of the deal, Congress and the White House would have two weeks to agree to changes to immigration enforcement tactics, or funding for the massive agency would expire on Feb. 13.

There was no such agreement. MS NOW reported late last week:

After two weeks of negotiations between Democrats and Republicans across Pennsylvania Avenue, lawmakers left Washington on Thursday without a deal to fund the sprawling department, all but ensuring the lights would turn off at the week’s end.

Now, with both parties digging in on changes to the controversial Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, it’s anyone’s guess when the lights will come back on.

The partial shutdown from two weeks ago lasted roughly four days. We already know that the ongoing DHS shutdown will be longer — because lawmakers won’t be on Capitol Hill this week.

But even if leading policymakers traded ideas during their time away from Washington, D.C., the two sides are not close to working something out. It would be an overstatement to suggest that members haven’t even tried — unlike some recent standoffs, the White House and GOP congressional leaders actually made some offers — but no one has seriously argued that a breakthrough is likely anytime soon.

In theory, it might seem as if public pressure would help spur a resolution. But in practice, there’s little public clamoring for a solution in large part because most people won’t see or feel the effects. The New York Times summarized:

Funding for the Department of Homeland Security lapsed early Saturday morning, beginning a shutdown that was not expected to bring most of the department’s work to a halt yet could disrupt travelers, immigration enforcement and disaster relief if it is prolonged.

Department officials have said that its essential missions and functions would continue. During last fall’s government shutdown, more than 90 percent of the department’s employees were required to keep working. But department officials have warned that many employees would be working without pay, posing a financial strain as their bills come due.

It will, in other words, be a few weeks before the public starts feeling the pinch, and until that happens, policymakers will feel more pressure to keep fighting and less pressure to strike a deal.

As for Donald Trump and his team, there have been some modest proposals for minor reforms, but in general, the White House sees the stakes as existential. “The administration is not going to accept concessions that meaningfully affect its ability to carry out its immigration enforcement agenda,” a senior Trump administration official said on a background call with reporters last week.

With this in mind, when Democrats push for judicial warrants and removed face masks, Team Trump doesn’t just disagree with the ideas on policy grounds, it also perceives the ideas as threats that undermine the White House’s core domestic goals.

I’m not prepare to guess what will happen next, though it’s worth emphasizing that the president’s State of the Union address is scheduled for next week — Tuesday, Feb. 24 — and there’s been some scuttlebutt about whether it might need to be postponed as a result of the DHS shutdown. Watch this space.

This post updates our related earlier coverage.