Heading into Tuesday’s state legislative special election in New Hampshire, Republicans had reason to be cautiously optimistic. The race was in a district that Donald Trump won by 9 points in 2024, and the Democratic candidate had already run and lost twice before by wide margins.

And yet, the contest turned into the latest in a series of red-to-blue flips. NH Journal reported:

In what Granite State Republicans hope is not a preview of November, Democrat Bobbi Boudman won Tuesday’s special election for Carroll County District 7, defeating Republican Dale Fincher 51 percent to 47 percent in a district that voted Republican by more than 13 points just 16 months ago.

The New Hampshire Union Leader called the outcome “stunning” and a “big upset” given the Republican advantage in the local district.

In a press statement, Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee President Heather Williams boasted, “Tuesdays are becoming a headache for state Republicans across the country as they suffer one stunning defeat after another.”

And therein lies the point: For Democrats, 2026 is off to a very encouraging start.

In January, two of the party’s candidates won lopsided victories in two special elections in Minnesota, the first two contests of the year, restoring the state House to an even partisan split.

Soon after, in Texas, Republicans invested a considerable amount of resources to keep a state Senate seat in the suburbs of Fort Worth. They failed: Democrat Taylor Rehmet, a union leader and an Air Force veteran, won a double-digit victory in a district Trump won by 17 points in 2024. (The president personally tried to rally support for the GOP candidate, but then pretended he didn’t after she lost badly.)

In early February, Republicans in Louisiana saw a unique opportunity to flip a state legislative seat from blue to red — in a district Trump won by 13 points — but when voters had their say, the Democratic candidate prevailed by 24 points.

Last week, a Democratic state legislative candidate also flipped a seat in Arkansas, reinforcing the larger pattern.

What’s more, The Downballot noted that the results out of New Hampshire marked the 10th time Democrats have flipped a district from red to blue in a special election since Trump returned to the White House. Over that same period, the number of seats flipped from blue to red remains zero.

Some will no doubt argue that it’s best not to read too much into a special election held in the winter, several months before November’s races. It’s a fair point, to be sure. But what matters is the degree to which the results fit into the broader political landscape. Republicans are tied to an unpopular president; a growing number of their congressional members are retiring; key elements of the GOP agenda are facing an intensifying public backlash; and they keep losing special elections, including in contests they expected to win.

If party insiders aren’t concerned about their standing ahead of this year’s midterm elections, they’re not paying close enough attention.

This post updates our related earlier coverage.