The Trump administration’s recent strikes on Iran and the death of its leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, are raising concerns yet again on the grim world of death-based online betting.
Journalist Ron Insana joined MS NOW’s Stephanie Ruhle on Sunday to discuss reporting that bettors on so-called prediction markets such as Polymarket, which are basically gambling websites, appear to have raked in millions of dollars on lucrative wagers related to the timing of the United States’ strike against Iran and efforts to oust its leadership.
The reports were flagged on social media by Democratic lawmakers, including California Rep. Mike Levin and Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy.
“It appears that a Polymarket account called ‘Magamyman’ made $515,000 in a single day betting on last night’s U.S. strike on Iran, with the first trade placed 71 minutes before the news broke publicly,” Levin posted to X on Saturday. “When this person bought in, the market had this at a 17% probability. They turned roughly $87,000 into over half a million dollars overnight.”
Levin called for congressional oversight and noted Donald Trump Jr.’s business ties to Polymarket, including his membership on the company’s advisory board.
In a note posted to its site, Polymarket defended its Middle East markets, saying, “The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and X could not.”
It’s also worth noting in passing that, in defiance of all prior precedent and ethics, the president and his family have also announced plans to launch their own prediction market that they say will let people bet on political matters Trump could personally influence.
Murphy’s post said he plans to introduce legislation to thwart the kind of betting being reported. When it comes to legislation on this front, Murphy seems certain to find some allies in the Senate. Just last week, several Democratic senators sent a letter to demand information on what steps, if any, the Trump appointee who’s leading the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is taking to stop online gambling companies from taking bets on deadly scenarios, such as wars and deposed leaders. The CFTC asserted as recently as last week that it has exclusive jurisdiction over such markets. “These contracts present dangerous national security risks, including creating incentives to incite violence, foment geopolitical conflicts, and disclose classified information,” the senators wrote in their letter to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig. They said, “These concerns have already been realized in recent months as these contracts proliferate on exchanges.”
Ja’han Jones is an MS NOW opinion blogger. He previously wrote The ReidOut Blog. 
