Updated
Summary
Tracking results from key primary elections. Seven states hold primary elections. SF district attorney facing recall election. GOP split on how to defend Trump ahead of first 1/6 hearing. Five months until midterm elections. Gas prices rising faster than any previous midterm year. Abortion, immigration & economy dominate ads in May. Senators eye bipartisan gun bill deal this week.
Transcript
LAWRENCE O`DONNELL, MSNBC HOST: Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell get tonight`s “LAST WORD,” once again, THE 11TH HOUR with Stephanie Ruhle starts now.
STEPHANIE RUHLE, MSNBC HOST: Tonight, the polls are all now closed on another critical primary day. Results are coming in just as we`re coming on the air and Steve Kornacki is breaking it all down from the big board.
Then only two days away from the first January 6 hearing, new reporting about the former president`s plans that sent Secret Service scrambling that day.
Plus, the emotional and powerful plea from Uvalde native Matthew McConaughey to get something, anything done on gun safety, as THE 11TH HOUR gets underway on this Tuesday night.
Good evening. Once again, I`m Stephanie Ruhle. We are 154 days out from the midterm elections and tonight we`re tracking all the results from the biggest primary day so far this year. Seven states held contest today from New Jersey to California where the polls have just closed. All eyes are on two key elections there. The race to be mayor of Los Angeles. The leading candidates sixth term Congresswoman Karen Bass and billionaire developer Rick Caruso. And the ballot measure to recall progressive San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin.
Let`s get straight to Steve Kornacki, it`s primary night so you know he`s going to be here at the big board waiting for us. Steve, break us down, who`s running? What are they doing? What are the numbers?
STEVE KORNACKI, MSNBC NATIONAL POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Stephanie, well the numbers right now are zero but within the next few minutes, we expect this map here of California to start lighting up like a Christmas tree. This is the way it works in California folks have been voting by mail for weeks now. This is different than some of the other states Remember we saw that slow count in Pennsylvania recently the mail-in ballots, not the case in California, they can process these, get these things ready to go and what happens is county after county really starting now because the polls have just closed in California within the next few minutes, county after county will start reporting out all of the mail ballots that they had received at least until Election Day.
So we`re going to start seeing some big numbers. This is one of the places obviously we are going to be looking the most closely here. This is San Francisco. This is the recall effort against the district attorney Chesa Boudin. Obviously national significance here, Boudin, one of a batch of progressive prosecutors who have taken office in cities and counties across the country over the last few years. He has stressed what he calls decarceration policies. His opponents say, his critics say he is too lenient on crime.
San Francisco, obviously one of the most democratic, one of the most liberal cities, not just in California, but in the entire country. What would that say? Voters in a city like that choose to recall a prominent progressive prosecutor, when can we expect results in San Francisco? If that recall effort last year of Gavin Newsom was any indication about 11:45 p.m. Eastern Time, that`s when we got that big batch of mail in votes from San Francisco in that — in the gubernatorial recall election last year. So if that`s any guide, maybe about 11:45 tonight, maybe a little bit earlier, but again, when it comes in, we`re going to get a ton of votes. And we`re going to get them all at once. And as you mentioned, Stephanie, we are obviously also going to be getting a lot of results and keeping a close eye on this, the mayor`s race in Los Angeles. No votes yet. But again, same deal, city of Los Angeles, Los Angeles County, they have been processing. They`ve been getting those mail in ballots ready. They will get numbers reported out again, if last year is recall, the Newsom recall elections any indication it could be about 20, 25 minutes, and we will get a lot of numbers and maybe some early clarity here in this mayoral primary in Los Angeles.
Again, if nobody gets 50% that`s the magic number 50% then the top two finishers will go to a runoff, that runoff will be held in November. The polling is indicated Karen Bass and Rick Caruso are far ahead of the rest of the field. We will see what happens as we start to get those numbers.
We`re also going to be keeping an eye, Stephanie, on a number of House races in California, including areas and incumbent Republican, his name is David Valadao from the Central Valley of California. He voted to impeach Donald Trump following January 6, he is facing the primaries. Congress are complicated in California Democrats, Republicans they all run on the same ballot, the top to advance to the general election. Well, there is a Republican who has stepped forward in that open primary against David Valadao making an issue of that vote for impeaching Donald Trump trying to rally Republicans against him. We`ll be keeping an eye on that.
And by the way at this hour, speaking of Republican incumbents who may be in some danger in the state of Mississippi want to show you what`s going on there right now, to date this has been the biggest surprise tonight. Here`s Michael Guest incumbent Republican Congressman, leading his challenger here. Michael Cassidy by about seven and a half points.
[23:05:14]
Now, again, you got to finish over 50% in Mississippi to avoid a runoff. Why is Guest in such a close race in Mississippi, he`s the only Republican in Mississippi who voted in favor of establishing a bipartisan January 6 Commission. That`s been an issue in this campaign. And you can see that`s why he`s sweating it right now at this hour very much.
Again, Guest trying to win this, trying to avoid a runoff he`d need to finish over 50% and in the fourth district in Mississippi, this is Southern Mississippi, long serving 12 years and come and Steven Palazzo, incumbent member of Congress, you can see right now he`s clearly going to a runoff. He`s been scandals about his use of office funds, about office staff. He`s going to finish in first place here, as a weak — weak first place finish for Steven Palazzo with his Republican primary.
The question now is which one of his opponents will face him in a runoff? It looks like Jackson County Sheriff Mike Ezell is slightly ahead of businessman Clay Wagner right now. But basically, you`ve got one incumbent member of Congress who is in grave danger here in Mississippi, certainly heading to a runoff. This is not a great position to be heading into a runoff in another incumbent member of Congress trying to avoid a runoff right now in Mississippi. That`s the drama that`s playing out right now as we speak. And again, we are waiting — it`s a waiting game right now, Stephanie, I promise I will flag you as soon as we get any numbers from California because like I said, once we do, we could get clarity pretty quick in some of these big races.
RUHLE: When you get the numbers, we will come right back. But until you do. I want to bring in our lead off panel this evening, Democratic Strategist James Carville. He helped elect former President Bill Clinton in the early days. And Tim Miller, a contributor to the Bulwark and former Communications Director for Jeb Bush. And both of these gentlemen are favorite guests of mine.
Mr. Carville, to you first, what`s your reaction to what we just heard from Steve?
JAMES CARVILLE, VETERAN DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: The reaction — I`m sorry, Stephanie, repeat it for me, I didn`t hear you.
RUHLE: What do you think about what Steve just said?
CARVILLE: I think it`s fascinating. I`m right now located in Mississippi, Fourth Congressional District, so I didn`t vote in, and I wouldn`t have voted for any of them. But, you know, in election night, I mean, Steve Kornacki, is the guy I go to, actually I like him because he`s a horse degenerate. So maybe he`ll tell us who went to Belmont. But I just think he does a really good job of telling his viewers of what`s going on and really does a good job of explaining it. So I`m going to save a little bit later than usual tonight to see when he weighs in on California because maybe he`ll maybe give us a preview of the Belmont.
RUHLE: Steve, what do you think about that. I believe James just called you a horse degenerate.
KORNACKI: I`d argue if I could. In my Belmont pick got scratched a couple of days ago. No ethereal road, I`m looking for a new one. Give me a tip James, maybe.
CARVILLE: Mo Donegal — Mo Donegal.
KORNACKI: There you go., the hometown horse. I like it.
RUHLE: All right, Tim Miller, let`s break down what Steve just told us because you`ve got a Republican who voted to impeach Trump. He`s at risk. You`ve got an incumbent Republican who voted in favor of the Jan. 6 commission. If both of those two gentlemen hold. What does that tell you about the state of the GOP?
TIM MILLER, THE BULWARK CONTRIBUTOR: You know, I don`t think that you can take broad pronouncements from what`s having these Mississippi races. Here`s what we know and what we`ve learned through a lot of the Republican primaries so far, is there`s about a third to maybe 40% of the Republican base that is all Trump all the time. And so I`m not surprised to see if you have a Mississippi congressman that voted for the January 6 committee that pro-Trump MAGA base would be able to get to 40 plus maybe some more.
You know, then you have another maybe 30% in these primaries that they still like Donald Trump, but or maybe ready to move on, maybe ready to go for a candidate they think might have a better chance of winning, you know, more practical Republican voters. And then you have some kind of crossover, depending on the race. So I think that what we`re seeing in Mississippi is going with a trend that we`ve seen in a lot of the other primaries throughout the country. Trump`s deal with a good hold on the party, but not a total hold depends on the situation.
RUHLE: Mr. Carville, California, considered a liberal state, San Francisco, one of the most liberal cities, the fact that you have got a progressive DA now getting recalled. What does that tell you about the state of politics there? Just last night, former Communications Director for President Obama, Dan Pfeiffer was here. I asked him about the San Fran mayor, and he said she`s doing a great job of pushing back against the far left, against the far left, you don`t hear — it`s rare that I hear somebody in that seat when they say push back. The far left isn`t the next thing they say.
CARVILLE: Well, first of all, I`m going to brag on myself a little bit here. I think it was April 24 of 2021. I wrote an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal and recommended that Democrats get in front of the crime issue that they take ownership of it and as I recall my final line in the piece was you either own this issue, or this issue will own you.
[23:10:12]
Crime should be a Democratic issue. You know, people don`t realize this Senator Biden, President Clinton work together in 1994 Crime Bill and banned assault weapons. If there was an assault weapons ban in 1994, it was in effect for 10 years. In 1994, there were — there were 400,000 assault weapons in the United States to date is 20 million. And now we think it`s progress. If you said, well, you got to pay 21 to have one, but for 10 years in this country, and bleeding, people hunting, they were going to target practice, they were in gun clubs. They weren`t buying assault weapons. And people United States needs to know that President Biden was instrumental, authored that bill, which was backed by then President Clinton, and for some reason, we`re losing sight of this. And we think it`s any kind of small victory. And I`m glad that Senator Murphy and I`m glad that Matthew McConaughey did today and passionate thing by Charles M. Blow, an hour before us.
But we did something as a country, and then we undid it, no one in the country realizes that. I don`t see why we can`t go big here sometimes and just ban the stupid things that no one needs them. Now, the only people that need this are people in the United States military. And this is ridiculous. But we`ve been through this. We did something and the Republicans aren`t dead. One of the great policy triumphs in crime and model lifetime, which is a long time, a long, long time.
RUHLE: Tim, we`re going to talk more about guns in a little bit, but I want to stay and talk about tonight`s elections. Talk to us about California considered a Democratic stronghold. Will tonight`s midterms tell us more about where the state is headed?
MILLER: I`m sorry, Tim.
RUHLE: Tonight`s primary, excuse me.
MILLER: Yeah, look, I mean, I don`t know that it`ll tell us about where the state is headed. But I think it is going to tell us a little bit about the Democratic Party is headed and I, you know, I`m out here in Oakland right now and socialize a lot of Democrats, despite my former standing as a Republican and the feeling among Democrats in California is a little bit of frustration, some of that stuff that James was talking about, I think that they feel like there`s a way to balance public safety with still being a liberal, still being a progressive, you can want to ban assault rifles that also think that, you know, cops should be protecting your neighborhood. And I think that there`s a feeling among Democrats that some on the progressive left, went overboard.
Chesa Boudin is a big example, that in San Francisco, we saw the education, the school board members recalled here in San Francisco, and possibly, I think the most dramatic thing we`ll see what happens with Caruso in the mayor`s race in California. I mean, he was a Mitt Romney, Republican, that`d be like me running for mayor of Los Angeles. So I think if he wins that, that that would be a real shock to the system. But even that he`s in the game, I think tells you that the Democratic base is ready to look for a more sensible reform oriented agenda. It`s sort of the rebellion of the Normie Democrats, right? They just want normal liberal stuff, the kind of stuff that James passed with Clinton back in the 90s. They don`t — they feel like some of the things that have been pushed lately go a little bit overboard. And if that`s the feeling in San Francisco in LA, I think that tells us a lot about the party nationally.
RUHLE: Mr. Carville, you are — yes?
CARVILLE: Right. Yeah, I`m just saying, Tim and I were in Los Angeles last September for LSU UCLA game, and you could sit stuck to homelessness and a disorder back in September. Now, Karen Bass is a very, very savvy, she`s a real, I don`t want to look probably into, in any of this other nonsense. But Caruso is, you know, very much running on this issue. And so it`s going to be interesting, but I had the sense out there then that people don`t like disorder. Yes, they want to have humane pollution, and I want violence and things like that. But they don`t want disorder around them, not what crime or homelessness, anything else. And there was a sense that there was a disorder out there, and voters are going to take charge today.
RUHLE: James, let`s go beyond California. When you look at the attack ads by Republicans going after Democrats, they keep using the they`re socialists, they`re radical socialists, let`s just break this down a minute, even if the term Democratic Socialist is factually correct. From a branding and messaging and winning perspective, would it make sense for the progressive wing of the party to maybe drop that word, at least for now? It triggers people when people hear socialists they think Venezuela, they do not think Sweden.
CARVILLE: Right. And of course, they don`t listen to me. So what good would it do, but they`ve done enough damage to the party brand is defunding the police nonsense, just identity left politics which no one likes, and they keep getting rejected again and again into pro. I`m actually kind of optimistic that they see just how unpopular they are not just in the country, but went within a Democratic party. And I`m very optimistic that voting Democrats are going to take their party, control their party, the crazies have the Republican Party.
[23:15:11]
It`s totally in control, I think it was going to see in his primaries and that the average democratic voter is going to tell the faculty lounge and the foundations. And all of this nonsense you see on a coast that this is our party, just as they did in South Carolina with Joe Biden, in 2020. The most important people in the Democratic Party are the people who vote in our primaries. And we have to understand that, that the Fourth Foundation is not the most important entity in our democratic party.
RUHLE: Gentlemen, stay right there. Steve`s got some numbers coming in. Steve, what can you tell us?
KORNACKI: Yeah, like I said, they`re going to start to come in. And what you`re seeing is this map of California, these are counties, what you`re looking at is the governor`s race right here. And again, remember, this is an open primary. So there`s just all sorts of candidates on this ballot. Gavin Newsom, running far, far ahead right now. We`re just tracking to see which counties starting to report in the vote. And what you`re seeing is this is their two counties here with key congressional districts. We don`t have anything yet from San Francisco. We don`t have anything yet from Los Angeles with us marquee races are but two potential — two huge House races. In terms of control of the House, we do have a ton of votes in from those. So let me show you what we`ve gotten in those.
We`ll start down here you go to the 49th District. This is Southern Orange County in northern San Diego County. Here the incumbent is Mike Levin. And you see about two-thirds of the vote was all just reported out at once. What is it again? That`s the mail vote. Those are the ballots that were returned yesterday, last week, a couple of weeks ago. These are usually the strongest ballots you`re going to get for Democrats here. So remember the same day vote, the folks who went out and voted today tends to be a little bit more Republicans. So this is probably a high watermark here. But you see Mike Levin, the incumbent, this is a district the 49th District of California that`s going to be very competitive this November. Right now running in second place. You`re very distantly Brian Maryott. This was his opponent, Levin`s opponent in the 2020 election.
Again, what`s going to decide which Republican emerges here to face Levin in the fall is probably going to be that same day vote. Again, the same day vote tends to be much more Republican than the mail vote. But we do have most of the vote in now, just in that one batch, that mail batch from the 49th district to California. Again, when all the votes are counted here, it`s going to offer us a little bit of a preview, because again, Republicans Democrats run together on the same primary ballot in California top to advance the general election. So we have some numbers from the 49th. We also have some numbers from the 13th district. This is a democratic seat. Here`s an open seat actually, because the incumbent here, Josh Harder left to run in a different district.
And again, you have a member of the State Legislature here, a Democrat leading with the mail vote that we`ve seen come in so far. You`ve got a farmer Duarte, he`s actually endorsed by Kevin McCarthy, Republicans have put a lot of money behind him. Again, I show you the 13th district because it`s not going to be resolved tonight. What we`re going to get set tonight is what the general election matchup is. These are the two candidates that each party, the leadership in each party would like to see get nominated. The 13th District is going to be a competitive district as well this November. So again, this is just to show you the numbers are starting to come in here in California. Look at that, looks like Marin County, just north of San Francisco`s in with some numbers. We are waiting those zooming in there. You see San Francisco, you see that little dot right there. We are waiting to see that light up. That will mean we have results in from San Francisco. This gives you an idea when you get that first report, you`re getting a ton of vote. So nothing yet from San Francisco. Nothing yet from Los Angeles where that mayoral races are starting to come in fast and furious here, Stephanie.
RUHLE: All right, while we wait. And before we go to break, Tim, I turned back to you, James, just gave us his assessment of where Democrats are where they need to be. Give us the reverse on the Republican side because you wrote a piece for the Bulwark, in titled, The GOP`s Glenn Youngkin model stalls out on the Pennsylvania Turnpike. What`s that model? Would the party do wrong?
MILLER: Yeah, look, I think the James` assessment is right about how the Democratic regulars need to fight for their party because the MAGA Trumpy crazies have taken over the Republican Party and the Republican consultant class. My former colleagues thought they had a solution to this. They had this lab created big money candidate that didn`t really believe all the conspiracy nonsense, all the anti-Vax stuff, you know, all the election fraud stuff. But they went along with it just enough to attract the MAGA voters, they hired MAGA consultants, and they kind of played the game with the MAGA media and they thought they could basically pull one over on Republican voters and that this plan worked in Virginia. Part of the reason was the Glenn young kid had so much money in that race and the person who`s running against was so crazy and it was an off, off year. It was a very favorable environment. Well, they tried to rerun that playbook in Pennsylvania with David McCormick, hedge fund CEO wife, Dina Powell worked in the Trump administration. And McCormick lost in a close race to Dr. Oz but I think the most telling thing about that close loss, he didn`t even get a third of the vote. Oz got a third of the vote and then an even crazier Ultra MAGA candidate Kathy Barnette got a quarter of the vote.
[23:20:12]
So this whole plan that the Republican consultant class came up with, to try to trick MAGA voters into voting for somebody who`s basically like a senator, right, centrist candidate just pretending to go along with the crazy. That only works with like a third of the party. And it`s not enough to actually win any of these primaries, if they`re competitive. The Youngkin thing, what we`ve learned, I think, was a one off and so if you look across the country, any other candidates who are running like that, like McCormick are failing and the more MAGA candidates are winning time and again.
RUHLE: So it sounds like what you`re saying is crazies can recognize if you`re faking crazy.
MILLER: Exactly.
RUHLE: Lucky for our audience, James Carville, Tim Miller, our own resident crazies tonight are sticking around.
Coming up, just ahead of the first hearing from January 6 Committee, new reporting on why Republicans are split over how they`re going to defend the former guy.
And later, the emotional and powerful plea from actor Uvalde native Matthew McConaughey for new gun laws. Can it help move the needle as Congress works on some sort of deal? THE 11TH HOUR just getting underway on a very busy Tuesday night.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[23:25:25]
RUHLE: Welcome back, let`s not waste time chat and Steve Kornacki has got more info on the big board.
KORNACKI: Yes, still waiting, obviously on the biggies. The San Francisco DA recall the Los Angeles mayor`s race. But two of these House races, we told you, there are some incumbents who might potentially be in some trouble. We`re starting to get some numbers from those two districts.
Let`s start right here in California`s Central Valley. It`s not a ton of votes that have come in yet. But let`s just set up this story because this is one we`re going to be watching closely as the night goes on. The incumbent here in this district is David Valadao. He`s a Republican who voted for the impeachment of Donald Trump following January 6. Now, you can see here, again, this is there are several counties that make up several components of different counties that make up this district. What we`ve gotten here is the mail-in ballots from one of the three component counties in this district here. But here`s the dynamic to keep an eye on as we get more votes reported out here in the 22nd district. This is on the whole, a Democratic leaning district. Valadao has been representing a Democratic leaning district.
Democrats are united behind a state legislator here. Rudy Salas. What their hope is in this tonight is that they can keep their own voters in line voting for Salas. And then the other thing that they tried to do some of the Democratic money in this race has gone to trying to boost Valadao`s opponents specifically this guy right here, Chris Mathys, who`s explicitly made Valadao`s vote on impeachment, the basis of his campaign. So the hope for Democrats tonight is that they can rally their own party behind Salas and divide Republicans enough that they could knock Valadao out of that second spot, knock him out completely, keep them out of the general election, get a much more in their view, beatable candidate in the general election.
So let`s see what happens as the results start to come in here, again, Valadao Republican incumbent who voted to impeach Trump and the other income that we`re keeping an eye on is in the 40th District of California. Young Kim also is a similar dynamic here. Young Kim, a freshman Congresswoman, one of the first Korean American women elected to Congress. Democrats have spent trying to boost a pro-Trump Challenger and knock her out of that top two spot. You can see though she is leading by 10 points with those mail ballots counted up now.
RUHLE: See that stay close. We are also covering this evening the January 6 committee gearing up for this Thursday`s hearing. Republicans are now split on how they`re going to defend Trump. NBC News reporting one wing of the party wants to ignore the proceedings because they believe by now Americans have little interest in the attack. Another wing is preparing to blunt any revelations through the press statements and news conferences.
Let`s bring back James Carville and Tim Miller. Tim, earlier tonight I heard Laura Ingraham defend Fox News that`s doesn`t plan to air these hearings, saying we try to cater to our audience. I guess they`re admitting they`re a catering service, not a news organization, or at least not anymore. But are they making a mistake? Maybe their hardcore base doesn`t care. But millions of Americans independent Americans are at least interested. That attack was not against Democrats. It was against our democracy.
MILLER: Yeah, and believe it or not, some Democrats watch Fox News. Look, there`s a lot of wish casting in the News Corp HQ and among the Mitch McConnell crowd that they can just pretend like January 6 didn`t exist and sort of wish it away. And so that`s why when you saw those two camps, you know, one says we don`t want to talk about it, because we just want to pretend like it doesn`t exist because they know how bad it was. And they all are complicit and saying how bad it was, as we know, from Jonathan Barton and our experiences book. And so what that corporate side of the Republican Party wants to do is make this go away. And that`s why Fox isn`t covering it. They`re putting over on Fox Business that nobody watches.
And that`s just not going to work. This was a crime that was far, orders of magnitude worse than Watergate, the visuals from this hearing are going to — are going to shock the nation. And I just think that the side of the GOP that wants to pretend it doesn`t exist isn`t going to work. The MAGA side, the ones that defend Trump is going to take over the party and has taken over the party.
RUHLE: James, take us to the committee and what they do next. You`re a messaging man. These are hugely important hearings. But the committee does not have the power to punish anyone or to change any laws. Messaging is the name of the game out of this thing. What do they need to get across to the country?
CARVILLE: I think I think they need to tell a story. And I think that all politics is a story. Every campaign is a story, all right. And I have to tell you I`ve been impress and I think Tim would say it too, I mean got to — they got from ABC I`m told by people who know him. He`s a very talented television guy, all right.
[23:30:09]
They`re picking the witnesses. This more, but hearing is sitting down, let me tell you a story about what happened to your country, and who is responsible for it. And I do expect I don`t have privy to anything much more than most people do. I do think we`re going to — there`s going to be news made here. I think we`re going to find out to do a lot of collaborators for this, I think it`s going to be interesting. But this is a — this is sit down, just like I did with my daughters are young, let`s get out Winnie-the-Pooh. And let`s tell the story.
Literally, they`re telling the story to the American people. And I`m very optimistic they`re going to do it in a very compelling and graphic way. But then, you`re right. This is not about legislation. This is not about anything like that. This is about bringing home exactly what a horrific criminal act this entire thing was. And all of the people behind this criminal act, you don`t have to be a lawyer to know that the person that drives the getaway car is just as guilty is the person who robbed a bank, the person case the bank is just as guilty, all right, the lookout guilty. And there were a lot of look out, a lot of getaway drivers. A lot of people that were involved in this.
RUHLE: Those who say the American voter doesn`t care about this hearing, are they underestimating the voter? You can care about these hearings, and at the same time, you can care about inflation, we`ve got a complicated mind.
CARVILLE: I hope so, because if people don`t care about this, what that took — what that took place the violence against police to criminality, trying to stop a constitutionally mandated process and cause the United States, if you don`t care about that, you`re just one stupid person. That`s all I can tell you. You shouldn`t call people stupid on television., I know that but there`s some — sometimes the word is, is being called for. This was a horrific crime. It was a criminal act, and it was a crime against the United States of America. I really believed that.
RUHLE: And the threat that we saw on January 6 is still alive today. James Carville, Tim Miller, thank you.
CARVILLE: Dear Stephanie, and my dear friend Tim, love the guy man.
RUHLE: Always good to see both of you. You shouldn`t say stupid on TV, but sometimes you just have to.
Coming up, an update for Mr. Kornacki at the big board as we track tonight`s primary races around the country. And the issues voters care about most with the midterms fast approaching when THE 11TH HOUR continues.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[23:36:15]
RUHLE: Welcome back, I think we got some results. Let`s go right to Steve Kornacki. What do you got, Steve?
KORNACKI: Stephanie, I said we would — we got votes finally, we would get a ton. Here we go Los Angeles, mayor`s race here in all at once nearly 40% of the votes have all come in. And you can see here in this initial batch here, Rick Caruso leading the way with 40.6%, Congresswoman Karen Bass running behind him right now 38.2% light years back to anybody else. So clearly this confirming what we saw in the polling, a two candidate race here.
Now, the two things to keep in mind, as you look at this number one, as we say, what you are seeing with these early results that get reported out in giant batches like this, you`re seeing the mail ballots that had been coming in for weeks. So there`s a question here about the same day vote, the folks who went out in the city of Los Angeles voted today, did they vote differently than the folks who voted, you know, a week or two ago by mail that was there a late shift in this race one way or the other that`s going to change these numbers dramatically? Because again, keep in mind, the 50% rule is in effect here. So if somebody can get to 50 –sorry, go ahead. Go ahead, I`m sorry.
RUHLE: I didn`t say anything.
KORNACKI: Oh, I`m —
RUHLE: I`m just listening to you intently.
KORNACKI: All right, the only thing I`m trying to say is —
RUHLE: You`re the only person I don`t want to interrupt, Steve.
KORNACKI: If somebody can get to 50% tonight, they win it on the spot. Otherwise, top 2 November runoff.
RUHLE: All right, Steve, we`re going to check back in with you in a minute. Speaking to November we are five months away from those midterms. A new NBC analysis offer some clues about the issues that will be dominating the airwaves between now and then, “Out of the 586 as reviewed by NBC News in May 72 mentioned abortion, 67 mentioned immigration or the border and 53 mentioned inflation or rising costs.
With us tonight to discuss Eugene Robinson, Pulitzer Prize Winning Columnist for the Washington Post. And Mark McKinnon, former Adviser to George W. Bush, and John McCain. He is also among the many brilliant co- hosts of the Circus on Showtime.
Mark, I want you to put all of the reasons for inflation aside, gas prices are high. They are now rising faster than any other midterm year we have seen since we began collecting data back in 1976. Is the rising price of just about everything going to be the number one issue bringing people to polls?
MARK MCKINNON, FORMER ADVISER TO JOHN MCCAIN & GEORGE W. BUSH: Sure, I mean, that`s blotting out the sun on any other issue. And it`s the thing that people care most about. They feel the pain closest to home. That`s the thing that affects everybody personally, at the gas pump or at the grocery store. So yeah, that is — we go back to your former guest, James Carville. Is the economy stupid. That`s a big problem. I`d say the one glimpse of hope for Democrats is reflected by these ads. We have something new in the news cycle, which are is the issue of abortion at the Supreme Court and the issue of another mass gun violence crisis. So those are two new X factors.
RUHLE: OK. But then Mark, you`re saving the narrative that Republicans win on the economy. President Biden has a lot of winning economic arguments to make, right? President Trump ran on infrastructure. He was a big real estate guy. He had about 32 infrastructure weeks and did nothing. President Biden on a bipartisan basis passed that infrastructure law and Republicans while they can rail on inflation, and trust me, we`re all suffering from it. They haven`t offered any solutions. So the Democrats need to not necessarily turn away from the economy but find a different way to talk about it. Abortion can`t be the solution to the economy.
[23:40:03]
MCKINNON: No, it`s not but, you know, you remind me what you`re saying, Stephanie, that in politics if you`re explaining you`re losing, and what you`re trying to say is that a bunch of data is going to make people feel better. Well, it`s not they feel bad. Now, which is not to say that there shouldn`t be some explanation and rationale for why we have inflation is because we had, you know, because President Biden stepped up and address the COVID crisis, and had a program that that flooded the American economy with a lot of money that saved a lot of jobs and arguably saved a lot of life. So yeah, you should talk about that, but recognize the reality of the situation that people feel pain, and you can`t explain it away.
RUHLE: That`s a great point, if you`re explaining you`re losing. But here`s the thing, Gene, Republicans have offered nothing as a counter. And last I checked come November, if they were to win, the supply chain issues in China aren`t going away, and the war won`t be over.
EUGENE ROBINSON, THE WASHINGTON POST COLUMNIST: Right.
RUHLE: Those are the two biggest contributors to high prices.
ROBINSON: Right, we know that. But one understands why the Republicans aren`t saying anything in politics, if your opponent is in trouble, you know, just allow the opponent to be in trouble, don`t — you don`t really have to jump in the middle, you know, offering, for example, solutions that could end up being unpopular. So they just say nothing.
Now, is that, you know, is that honest, is that right, no, but that is politics. And that`s the way it`s going to be. I do think there`s a bit of nuance to this question, though, because the polls show that people are, you know, are really concerned about the economy writ large. People generally think their personal situation is good, and are very optimistic about their own prospects. So that`s one thing I would try to find a way to get at in talking about the economy if I were running a Democrat — running the Democratic campaigns.
And the other thing is that which voters will be moved assuming that Roe v. Wade goes down as we think it will. It could be that the voters who will care most about that and who could be persuaded to make this this essentially a single issue election for them are some of those suburban voters in swing districts who will ultimately decide who controls the House of Representatives, and who controls the Senate too. So I think you can`t say that it all is lost already for Democrats. There are some openings there, I think some political openings, and they need to try to exploit them to the extent they can.
RUHLE: Mark, do you see these issues that are dominating the news right now, guns and abortion? Do you see them driving people to vote in November, especially when you think about those swings, suburban districts? Those are those same districts where people have white collar jobs, and they`ve had a record amount of household savings, so they`re not suffering economically?
MCKINNON: Well, here`s the problem and here`s the historical issue, Stephanie. Republicans often do better in off cycle elections when there`s not a presidential election that you just don`t have the turnout that you generally do in a presidential election when Democrats turnout. So anything that animates or makes Democrats more likely to turn out and vote is a positive indicator for Democrats in a pretty gloomy situation. So if you got abortion pop, you got guns pop and that`s a big issue for Democrats that might otherwise stay home. So I would say that it`s a very challenging environment. It`s very difficult we got a tough economic circumstances given inflation especially when you have Biden`s economic chief admitting that she made a mistake and Republicans are certainly going to use that. So use what you got and abortion and guns are our animating issues for single issue Democrats. So get them out there.
RUHLE: Gentlemen, it stay with us. I want to dig deeper on guns and what we are doing about it on the other side of the break, because earlier today, it was one of those hard to forget moments. Matthew McConaughey speaking in the White House press briefing room, but will the emotional observations of a Hollywood actor and a hometown Uvalde guy helped move the needle on gun safety? When the 11Th Hour continues.
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(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MATTHEW MCCONAUGHEY, ACTOR: Maite wore green high-top Converse with a heart she had hand-drawn on the right toe because they represented her love of nature. Camila has got these shoes. Can you show these shoes, please? Wore these every day. Green Converse with a heart on the right toe. These are the same green Converse on her feet that turned out to be the only clear evidence that could identify her after the shooting. How about that?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RUHLE: How about that? Those replicas of the sneakers worn by one of the tiny victims of the mass shooting in Texas were among the most disturbing images that were used today by Uvalde native Matthew McConaughey as he pleaded for tougher gun legislation.
Tomorrow, an 11-year-old survivor of the shooting, the little girl who smeared herself with her best friend`s blood so she could appear dead. She will be testifying before House members about those desperate moments she faced and will face for the rest of her life.
Still with us to discuss Eugene Robinson, and Mark McKinnon. Gene, a Senate committee today heard from the son of one of the victims of the shooting in Buffalo, New York, I want you to watch this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GARNELL WHITFIELD JR., SON OF BUFFALO SHOOTING VICTIMS: What are we supposed to do with all our anger and all of our pain? You expect us to continue to just forgive and forget over and over again. And what are you doing? You are elected to protect us, to protect our way of life. I ask every one of you to imagine the faces of your mother`s as you look at mine. And ask yourself, is there nothing that we can do?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RUHLE: Incredibly emotional moments. We`re hearing them day in and day out. We`re going to hear more tomorrow. But we`ve been hearing them for years. Gene, do you have any confidence that this time it will move the needle?
ROBINSON: No, I don`t. I have hope. I have hope — look, the encouraging noises are coming out of the Senate, the bipartisan negotiations seems like they could actually produce a very, very weak bill, something that would encourage states to impose a red flag laws, something that maybe could slightly tighten background checks. And then they want to talk about mental health, which you know, good luck if you`re going to solve mental health. You know, the problem is the gun and nothing is directly going to be done about guns I hope against hope that at least they could raise the age nationally for buying assault rifle from 18 to 21.
[23:50:18]
But it looks doubtful that that`s going to come out of the Senate maybe, you know, surprise me, please. It is, you know, that said, if we can move one centimeter closer towards sensible, sane, life-saving gun policies, then, sure that`s better than staying where we are. We`ve tried doing nothing and that doesn`t work. So if they come up with just that much, you know, I say swallow hard, approve it and keep working at it and those — and these family members shouldn`t have to do this. They shouldn`t have to come and face Congress in these moments of grief and 11-year-old girl want to come tomorrow to a hearing that is absolutely, that`s outrageous. That`s horrific, that they have to do this, in order to try to get through to Congress on this issue that is costing so many lives and causing so much tragedy.
RUHLE: Mark, today we heard the reasoning, why AR-15s are useful, why they`re needed. We heard it from South Dakota`s John Thune. I want you to watch this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN THUNE, (R) SOUTH DAKOTA: In my state, they use them to shoot prairie dogs and, you know, other types of varmints. And so, I think that there are legitimate reasons why people would want to have them.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
RUHLE: Varmints, that type of gun was used and killed those kids last week and hurt them so badly that that young girl was unrecognizable, except for her green sneakers.
MCKINNON: It`s stunning, Stephanie. I mean, I would love to see that Senator defend himself before one of the parents of those kids who were shocked by saying, yeah, we need these weapons of mass destruction to stop the menace of prairie dogs. This is like an emerging Republican talking point that we need them for varmints. I mean, it`s like a goddamn cartoon. The other one, so we need to stop raccoons and
RUHLE: Feral hogs.
MCKINNON: Yeah, and feral hogs. Republicans, we need assault rifles for varmints. And that`s it. And McConaughey was so powerful today, because he humanizes. I think that`s the problem is that the senators are so removed from reality. They don`t realize that we`re talking about not just human beings, but 10 year olds, nine year olds, eight year olds, kids in elementary schools, who are being literally blown up so they can`t be recognized at anything other tennis shoe. And the thing that`s really disturbing to me, Stephanie, is the fact that 44% of Republicans now say we just have to accept the status quo of mass killings going forward, that`s just the way it is.
RUHLE: Well, Matthew McConaughey, he didn`t just speak at the White House today. He then went on Fox News and made that same emotional plea. Gene, do you think it`s more important that Fox News visit with a visit to the White House?
ROBINSON: On the Fox News visit may be more important, it really may be. He needs to reach the majority of gun owners who support sensible reasonable gun control, sensible reasonable measures to attack gun violence, who know about weapons, who understand the difference between, you know, what you need for varmints and weapons of war. So I think that`s that outreach is very, very important. But again, does it — does even that get fed into the Republican caucus in the Senate, they seem to be completely sealed off from reality and public opinion has been for gun control in this country for a long time and then cannot be moved. It is a national disgrace.
RUHLE: Prairie dogs and varmints, that is the response to 19 children and two teachers being murdered less than two weeks after 11 people at a grocery store. Eugene Robinson, Mark McKinnon, I thank you both for joining us tonight. We`re going to leave it there.
Before our special primary coverage continues at the top of the hour with Ayman Mohyeldin, we want to leave you with a little more of Matthew McConaughey`s important call to action.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MCCONAUGHEY: We got to take a sober, humble, and honest look in the mirror and rebrand ourselves based on what we truly value. What we truly value.
We got to get some real courage and honor our immortal obligations instead of our party affiliations.
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Enough with the counterpunching. Enough of the invalidation of the other side. Let`s come to the common table that represents the American people. Find a middle ground, the place where most of us Americans live anyway, especially on this issue.
Because I promise you, America — you and me, who — we are not as divided as we`re being told we are. No.
How about we get inspired? Give ourselves just cause to revere our future again. Maybe set an example for our children, give us reason to tell them, “Hey, listen and watch these men and women. These are great American leaders right here. Hope you grow up to be like them.”
And let`s admit it: We can`t truly be leaders if we`re only living for reelection.
Let`s be knowledgeable and wise, and act on what we truly believe.
Again, we got to look in the mirror, lead with humility, and acknowledge the values that are inherent to but also above politics. We`ve got to make choices, make stands, embrace new ideas, and preserve the traditions that can create true — true progress for the next generation.
With real leadership, let`s start giving us — all of us, with real leadership — let`s start giving all of us good reason to believe that the American Dream is not an illusion.