Europeans relied Paul the Octopus to predict its World Cup wins. A forecasting model to predict the U.S. president using a special key system seems downright practical in comparison.
American University professor, Allan Lichtman, also a guest on tonight’s show, recently predicted Barack Obama will bag the 2012 election.
“Even if I am being conservative, I don’t see how Obama can lose,” Lichtman told Washington Whispers, and he’s never been wrong.
He’s correctly named the president since Reagan’s re-election in 1984. His model uses 13 variables as the deciding factor: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma. If six or more variables get checked off against the party in power, the opposing party wins.
In your view, what factors will ultimately decide the election? Tweet me your thoughts or drop me a line in the comment section below.
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Sarah Muller