This is an adapted excerpt from the April 21 episode of “The 11th Hour with Stephanie Ruhle.”
On Monday, with a single post on his social media site, President Donald Trump injected a fresh round of worry into the economy. The president, once again, attacked Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, calling him a “major loser.” Trump also wrote that if Powell doesn’t lower interest rates, the economy could slow.
The post sent markets reeling. The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all fell nearly 2.5%. But it’s not just the stock market. On Monday, the dollar sank to its lowest level since 2022, a very concerning sign of how global investors see America right now. On Friday, Trump economic adviser Kevin Hassett said the administration was studying whether or not they could fire Powell from the Fed, despite warnings that it could unleash more economic chaos.
Even the suggestion of Trump replacing Powell has markets dropping.
As we near the president’s 100-day mark in office, we should assess where the country is economically. As I mentioned, both stocks and the dollar are down. But perhaps the most worrying sign for the U.S. economy is that bond yields are rising.
This is unusual. If you look at any historical crisis, when there’s panic in stocks, global investors rush to buy up the safest assets: Treasury bonds. With more investors looking to buy bonds, the prices usually go up (supply and demand) while at the same time, what the bonds will pay back, known as the “yield,” goes down. The thinking is: It’s better to lock in a guaranteed return versus risking money in a volatile stock market. The benefit for consumers is that interest rates for many types of loans — mortgages, auto, credit cards — are tied to these bonds, and when Treasury yields fall, it makes borrowing money more affordable.
All this also helps make the dollar stronger, giving U.S. consumers more purchasing power and making foreign goods cheaper.
But that cushion is nowhere to be found in our current scenario. Investors are dumping Treasuries, the interest on bonds are trending higher, and the dollar is weakening. That means the cost of goods we import will be higher, and remember, this is before we even factor in Trump’s tariffs, which will only add more to the final price.
Even the suggestion of Trump replacing Powell has markets dropping. So my big question is what exactly would a different Fed chair do to reverse this vexing place we find ourselves in? Even if you believe that 77 days from now, there will be trade deals with dozens of countries, the trade war with China is still on. A new Fed chair won’t break these rising tensions.
For all those who say, “I don’t have any money in the stock market, so all this talk about the bonds and the dollar doesn’t affect me.” Well, you know what will? Higher prices. And given the current picture, that’s exactly what’s in store if Trump gets his way.
