The first special elections of 2026 were encouraging for Democrats: Two Democratic candidates won lopsided victories in two special elections in Minnesota, restoring the state House to an even partisan split.
The second came soon after in Texas, where Republicans invested a considerable amount of resources to keep a state Senate seat in the suburbs of Fort Worth. They failed: Democrat Taylor Rehmet, a union leader and an Air Force veteran, won a double-digit victory in a district Donald Trump won by 17 points in 2024. (The president personally tried to rally support for the GOP candidate, but then pretended he didn’t after she lost badly.)
Louisiana’s state legislative special election, however, was supposed to be a very different kind of contest. A Democratic state representative gave up his seat to become commissioner of the state Office of Alcohol and Tobacco Control, and Republicans saw this as a unique opportunity to do something the party hasn’t done in a while: flip a seat from blue to red.
That didn’t happen. The Advocate in Baton Rogue reported:
Democrat Chasity Verret Martinez won Saturday’s special election for State House District 60, defeating Republican Brad Daigle.
Martinez, a member of the Iberville Parish Council, earned 62% of the vote against Daigle, a small-business owner and member of the Greater Baton Rouge Port Commission.
At first blush, this might not seem especially notable, since a Democratic candidate won a special election to replace a former Democratic legislator.
But the details matter. As The Downballot explained, Trump carried this district by 13 points in the 2024 cycle, fueling GOP hopes about flipping the state House seat.
Instead, the Democratic nominee prevailed — by 24 points.
The Downballot’s report added, “Since Trump returned to the White House, Democrats have picked up eight Republican-controlled districts through special elections, as well as 18 seats in New Jersey and Virginia during those states’ regularly scheduled contests last November. Republicans have flipped none.”
Some will no doubt argue that it’s best not to read too much into a state legislative special election held in early February. It’s a fair point, to be sure. But what matters is the degree to which the results fit into the broader political landscape: Republicans are tied to an unpopular president; a growing number of their congressional members are retiring; key elements of the GOP agenda are facing an intensifying public backlash; and they keep losing special elections, including in contests they expected to win.
If party insiders aren’t concerned about their standing ahead of this year’s midterm elections, they’re not paying close enough attention.
