Donald Trump has long struggled when confronted with discouraging polling data, but lately the president has been downright apoplectic on the subject. As January got underway, he responded to the latest evidence of his weak support by making up a generous new approval rating for himself, while asking the public to play along and pretend it’s real.
As January neared its end, Trump said he intended to sue The New York Times for publishing the results of a poll that apparently hurt his feelings. He added soon after that he believes pollsters are secretly conspiring against him — a practice the president said “should be, virtually, a criminal offense” — before concluding, “Something has to be done about Fraudulent Polling. … I am going to do everything possible to keep this Polling SCAM from moving forward!”
But if Trump didn’t like the Times’ poll, then the latest national survey from the Pew Research Center is likely to spark an even bigger meltdown. From the report on the findings:
Trump’s approval rating stands at 37%, down from 40% in the fall. By more than two-to-one, Americans say the administration’s actions have been worse than they expected (50%) rather than better (21%). Only about a quarter of Americans today (27%) say they support all or most of Trump’s policies and plans, down from 35% when he returned to office last year.
While different pollsters have pointed in slightly different directions on the president’s overall level of public support, The New York Times’ polling averages over the weekend showed Trump’s backing tying the lowest point of his second term.
These topline results will not be well received at the White House. But for the president, the problem isn’t merely that his support has fallen to a woeful 37%, it’s also why his approval rating has reached new depths: Even some Republicans are starting to turn on Trump.
The president’s approval rating among GOP voters slid 11 points over the course of the past year, and support for the White House’s agenda among Republicans has fallen by the same margin.
But wait, it gets worse. The percentage of GOP voters who believe Trump “respects the country’s democratic values” fell by 8 points over the first year of his second term; the percentage of GOP voters who believe Trump “has the mental fitness to do the job” fell by 9 points; and the percentage of GOP voters who believe Trump “acts ethically in office” dropped 13 points.
That last point is especially notable because it’s the only issue on which the president’s support has dropped below 50% among his fellow Republicans: Just 42% of GOP voters believe Trump acts ethically.
Many observers might wonder how in the world the number could still be this high, but the broader pattern is what matters: A striking number of rank-and-file Republicans are losing faith in Trump.
This doesn’t matter for his own electoral prospects (Trump cannot legally seek another term), but it does matter to the extent that popular presidents wield more power, while flailing presidents wield less.
This is also true on the international stage — foreign officials are more likely to take seriously leaders who enjoy meaningful domestic support. It’s also true on Capitol Hill: Members of Congress (who, unlike the incumbent president, do have to worry about re-election) care a great deal about the prevailing political winds.
If the public were rallying behind Trump, Republican lawmakers might be that much more inclined to follow his lead, while Democratic lawmakers in competitive districts would be that much less inclined to fight the White House agenda.
But with so many Americans expressing their increasingly unambiguous dissatisfaction with Trump, it creates a permission structure for Congress to defy the president’s wishes. So the more voters turn against Trump, the harder it becomes for him to get his way — which helps explain why he’s responding to discouraging polls in such hysterical fashion.
This post updates our related earlier coverage.








