A month ago, as 2026 was just getting underway, the House Republican Conference had 220 members, which gave the GOP a narrow majority of seven more seats than the Democratic minority. The Republican total dropped to 219 soon after, as then-Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia resigned (right after she became eligible for a congressional pension).
One day later, the GOP advantage fell again, when Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa of California died unexpectedly.
On Saturday, the gap between the parties in the U.S. House narrowed just a little more. The Associated Press reported:
Democrat Christian Menefee won a Texas U.S. House seat in a special election Saturday that will narrow Republicans’ already-slim majority, telling President Donald Trump that the Democratic district ‘topples corrupt presidencies.’
Menefee, the Harris County attorney, prevailed in a runoff against Amanda Edwards, a former Houston City Council member. He will replace the late Rep. Sylvester Turner, a former Houston mayor, who died in March 2025.
The race was notable for a variety of reasons, including the fact that it took almost a year to fill the vacancy, which raised inevitable questions about whether Texas Gov. Greg Abbott deliberately left the Democratic district without a representative to help his party on Capitol Hill.
But now that the race is over and Menefee has prevailed, it’s House Speaker Mike Johnson and his fellow GOP leaders who find themselves in an unenviable position: Assuming Menefee is sworn in quickly (though with Johnson, one never really knows), Republicans will now have a one-vote margin.
With the GOP having 218 members to the Democrats’ 214, that might not be immediately obvious, but consider the arithmetic: If every member is present and one GOP member breaks ranks, the result would be a 217-215 vote. But if two GOP members break ranks, the result would a 216-216 vote — and in the House, a tie vote is a failed vote.
And with Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky routinely voting against his party, GOP leaders have effectively no margin at all.
The absences left by Greene and LaMalfa are almost certain to be filled by Republicans, but those special elections are still months away. What’s more, there’s been scuttlebutt of late about other current House Republicans, including New York’s Elise Stefanik and South Carolina’s Nancy Mace, weighing possible resignations before their terms end, which would make a challenging legislative dynamic that much more difficult.
By any fair measure, 2025 was exceedingly difficult for Johnson and his fellow House GOP leaders. There are fresh reasons to believe 2026 will be worse.
This post updates our related earlier coverage.
